An analyst believes that Umno could boost its tally in the Selangor state assembly after two elections if it works on the ground to change public perception.
Syaza Shukri of International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) said the party faced an uphill climb to reclaim dominance in the state due to a fragmented political landscape and its poor showing in the 2023 state election.
“I think it will be very difficult for Umno to become dominant again in Selangor. In the last GE, Umno only won two state seats (Sungai Air Tawar and Dusun Tua) while PAS won 10. So how can it compete with PAS for the Malay vote?” she told FMT.
“If Umno works hard and sincerely, maybe in two general elections it could bounce back, but gains will more likely be through cooperation with Pakatan Harapan (PH).”
Umno Supreme Council member Puad Zarkashi recently said that the party could lead Selangor despite its small seat tally, pointing to its leadership of the Perak and Pahang governments as examples.
Puad made the remark while taking a jab at former Selangor menteri besar Khir Toyo, now with Bersatu, whom he blamed for Umno’s loss of power in the state.
Syaza said that serving the people was a basic duty, not a measure of power.
“For me, political dominance can only be seen in two ways: by winning a large number of seats (electoral math) or controlling the political narrative and public sentiment. If that strategy succeeds, it can lead to the dominance I mentioned,” she said.
Another IIUM academic, Lau Zhe Wei, dismissed Puad’s remarks as rhetoric that ignored political realities.
He said Puad’s claim failed to take into account that the Barisan Nasional-PH state government in Pahang was the result of post-election bargaining, as no single party had held a majority.
“In Pahang, Umno holds the menteri besar’s post, but that was a compromise. The position was given to Umno not because the party is strong or has served for a long time, but because of political manoeuvring,” he said.
Lau also said that Selangor had been under PH, or its predecessor Pakatan Rakyat, since 2008, and that the coalition would not easily hand over the menteri besar’s post to Umno.
“In today’s politics, providing services alone doesn’t automatically translate into votes. It’s not that simple.
“Take MCA for example: even after suffering major defeats, it still provides the same services to the Chinese community. But in GE14 and GE15, it still lost.
“So I don’t think that simply providing better services will easily win support for Umno,” he said.
