PRESIDENT Donald Trump‘s hardline immigration agenda, a key force behind his return to the White House in 2024, is increasingly showing signs of becoming a liability, threatening Republican prospects in the November midterm elections.
What was once his most potent campaign issue is now driving unease among voters unsettled by the administration’s aggressive tactics in its immigration crackdown, including the targeting of US citizens and violent measures against peaceful protesters.
Illegal immigration and inflation were the twin issues that helped Trump win the election.
Opinion polls show a growing number of Americans, including key independent voters, are unhappy with Trump‘s handling of both, putting Republicans on the defensive ahead of the midterms.
The polling shows a sizeable minority are uneasy with a heavy-handed approach by federal immigration agents, which led to the shooting deaths of a mother of three and a nurse in Minneapolis this month.
Just 39 per cent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of immigration, the lowest since his inauguration, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Monday.
While 84 per cent of Republican respondents said they support Trump on the issue, a fifth of them said federal agents had gone “too far” in their crackdown.
If those sentiments persist, they could spell trouble for Republicans in November, when Democrats are aiming to take control of Congress and block the president’s agenda.
“The base is still pretty comfortable with what Trump is doing. But it’s not just about the base, it’s about swing voters,” said John Feehery, a Republican strategist.
Dubbed Operation Metro Surge, the December deployment of nearly 3,000 federal immigration agents to Minneapolis and St. Paul provoked a national uproar with the fatal shootings of Renee Good on Jan 7 and then Alex Pretti on Jan 24.
Both were killed during confrontations with immigration agents at protests.
Trump has taken steps in recent days to ease tensions in Minneapolis, dispatching his border czar to oversee the operation and signalling a willingness to work with state officials.
It remains unclear whether these moves reflect a recognition of the political risks to Republicans in November midterms, or are simply an effort to regain control of an operation that has produced daily images of masked federal agents responding aggressively to protesters confronting them in the streets.
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Some Republican strategists warned that a renewed focus on deporting the “worst of the worst,” as Trump promised during the campaign, was necessary to retain support from moderate Republicans and independents in November.
“Americans support secure borders, and they’re willing to forgive mistakes when you’re cleaning up the previous administration’s fiasco – provided you’re seen as targeting criminals,” said Giancarlo Sopo, a Republican media strategist who worked on Hispanic outreach for Trump’s 2020 campaign.
“The margin for error narrows dramatically if you’re perceived as going after gardeners and taco truck ladies.”
Trump’s softening of his tone and sidelining of Gregory Bovino – a top Border Patrol official and a lightning rod for opponents of the crackdown – followed days of criticism from a number of Republican lawmakers and governors.
A Republican candidate for Minnesota governor, Chris Madel, made headlines for his decision to quit the race over the tactics being used by federal agents in Minneapolis and what he described as indiscriminate arrests.
Zach Duckworth, a Republican state senator who was recently activated in the Minnesota Army National Guard to support local law enforcement, said he was so alarmed by top Trump officials labelling Pretti a “domestic terrorist” that he wrote to FBI Director Kash Patel, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and others to object to the characterisation.
While an increasing number of traditional, moderate Republicans now oppose Trump’s immigration crackdown, Democrats are at risk of misdiagnosing the moment and overplaying their hand, said Scott Rasmussen, a veteran pollster.
“Where the left is making a mistake on this issue is they think they’re winning a fight to build support for illegal immigrants,” Rasmussen said.
“Where the right, especially the MAGA right, is wrong, is they are thinking everybody voted for what’s happening in Minneapolis.”
Jake Blackowiak, 33, worried the controversy could contribute to the party losing at least one chamber of Congress in the midterms, said
“The Republicans aren’t going to be able to pass any more laws or advance the agenda he promised,” Blackowiak, said.
*The writers are from Reuters
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