Thailand votes in a crucial election with no clear majority expected, as the nation grapples with border conflicts, economic woes, and deep political instability.
BANGKOK: Thais head to the polls on Sunday in a pivotal election that pits popular reformists against the conservative establishment, with the shadow of former leader Thaksin Shinawatra looming from his prison cell.
The nation’s next government will inherit significant challenges, including a volatile border dispute with Cambodia that saw deadly clashes twice last year. It must also confront multibillion-dollar transnational cyberscam networks operating from the region.
Economic growth remains anaemic, with the vital tourism sector yet to fully recover to its pre-Covid levels. No single party is forecast to win an outright parliamentary majority, setting the stage for complex coalition negotiations.
“There are forces beyond the political arena in Thailand that call the final shots,” said political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak. “It’s not about the election, it’s about the dissolutions.”
The previous iteration of the main progressive force, the Move Forward party, won the most seats in the 2023 election. Its candidate for prime minister was subsequently blocked from taking office, and the party itself was later dissolved by court order.
“How could we have resisted them?” asked Kitti Sattanuwat, 64, at a final rally for its successor, the People’s Party. “When the system won’t let us form a government then we simply can’t. That’s OK, we can fight again. There is hope. People must live with hope.”
Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party came second in 2023 and initially formed a coalition with the conservative Bhumjaithai party. That government’s prime minister was removed by a court order, succeeded by Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
She was also judicially ousted before parliament anointed Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul as premier last September. This made him the country’s third prime minister in just two years, underscoring the chronic instability.
Thailand’s modern political history is defined by military coups, bloody street protests, and judicial interventions. The 2014 coup led to five years of junta rule and a military-drafted constitution that grants substantial power to appointed institutions like the senate.
“People who are elected have been able to be undermined by people who are not elected,” noted political scientist Napon Jatusripitak. “That’s not necessarily a good thing for a country where democratic experience has been turbulent.”
The People’s Party is the clear leader in opinion polls, with Anutin’s Bhumjaithai in second place. Analysts suggest Anutin could retain the premiership by again forming a coalition with Pheu Thai, which now ranks third in surveys.
Pheu Thai has seen its fortunes decline after Paetongtarn was dismissed by the constitutional court over her handling of the Cambodia dispute. The party’s patriarch, Thaksin, remains jailed on corruption charges.
His nephew, Yodchanan Wongsawat, is now seeking to become the family’s fifth prime minister. Recent polls put the party’s support at just 16%, a stark contrast to its former dominance.
While Bhumjaithai campaigns on national defence credentials, the People’s Party advocates ending military conscription and reducing the number of generals. All major parties are promoting various populist economic policies to attract voters.
Pheu Thai has pledged to award nine daily prizes of one million baht (approximately RM131,000) each to stimulate the economy. A referendum on Sunday also allows voters to voice their desire for constitutional reform in principle, though no specific measures are proposed.
