A political analyst has claimed that the outcome of Sabah’s 17th state election does not depend on whether Sabah Barisan Nasional-Umno continues its alliance with Pakatan Harapan or contests independently.
Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said this was because BN lynchpin Umno and PH hold few, if any, overlapping seats in Sabah — making direct electoral clashes unlikely.
“The cold, harsh fact is that most parties will go solo, without any overlapping wherever possible. So this decision is no better or worse than if BN teams up with some other parties.
“BN and PH have few overlapping seats as the latter focuses mostly on urban and suburban seats while Umno focuses mainly on rural seats. So, it makes little difference if they team up or not,” he told FMT.
Separately, Universiti Malaysia Sabah’s Bilcher Bala warned Sabah Umno that its grassroots support has weakened considerably since the 2020 state election, and that contesting alone could be a highly risky strategy.
Bilcher said going up against PH and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah would only benefit the likes of Warisan or Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM), putting Umno at risk of losing seats it currently controls.
“BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has already stressed that no single party is expected to win a simple majority in the state election. Therefore, alliances are key to forming the state government.
“Going solo could cause Sabah BN to be sidelined in the post-election negotiations, thus losing all chances of having any influence in the state administration. It would be a highly risky and unpragmatic move,” he said.
BN and PH previously reached a pact for the state election, but GRS also announced an alliance with PH last month.
Sabah Umno strategic director Rosman Ahir Zaman later said the party was capable of facing the state polls on its own, adding that it had no intention of cooperating with “dishonest and insincere” parties.
A leader of Parti Bersatu Sabah, a GRS component, then challenged Sabah Umno to exercise its autonomy by officially declaring that it would go solo in the state election.
However, Sabah Umno chief Bung Moktar Radin brushed off the remark, saying the state chapter will not act hastily in pinning down its election strategy.
Bilcher said Sabah Umno may have little choice except to maintain its pact with PH, especially since the central leadership favours that alliance.
“If Sabah BN leaves this pact, they risk losing central support and access to national machinery, allowing PH and GRS to dominate.”
He also said Rosman’s statement clearly contradicted Zahid’s stand on electoral alliances, especially since the Umno president had claimed the party may find “friends among enemies”.
“The Sabah Umno leader’s actions may be seen as challenging the central leadership and could spark internal tensions, especially if it affects BN’s chances at the polls,” said Bilcher.
“If Sabah Umno really wants to go solo, it must prove that it still has grassroots support through the addition of new members.”
