THREE years after winning power, Giorgia Meloni has consolidated her position at the helm of Italian politics, defying the economic headwinds and international uncertainty that have unsettled many of her European counterparts.
In a country long marked by instability, Meloni’s steady leadership has won her plaudits in the markets, but analysts say she has cemented her position by embracing the status quo rather than tackling the hard-hitting reforms that Italy badly needs.
Recent polling shows that both her Brothers of Italy party and her broader conservative coalition command more support now than they did at the time of their 2022 election victory — a rare trajectory of rising consensus for a sitting government. Her own approval rating hovers around 42 per cent — ahead of many European peers, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron.
This popularity reflects a perception of competence and control, underpinned by a strong presence on the international stage and a cautious approach to public spending that has reassured investors, analysts say.
“Meloni has managed Italy’s budget constraints, but we are not seeing any transformational structural change,” said Wolfango Piccoli of the London-based political risk consultancy Teneo.
“Even with a strong parliamentary majority and very weak opposition, we are seeing a complete lack of ambition.”
From the outside, Meloni’s Italy appears to be a prosperous island of certainty in a turbulent Europe. Last month, Italy’s 10-year borrowing rates fell to match those of France for the first time, reflecting a dramatic drop in the public deficit from 8.1 per cent of gross domestic product in 2022 to a forecast 3.0 per cent this year.
While her risk-averse governance has contained the deficit, it has done little to unshackle the hidebound economy, long afflicted by red tape, high energy costs, demographic decline, brain drain, high taxes and low wages.
Instead, Meloni has shored up her right-wing base by championing national identity and traditional family values. She has also focused on law and order, looking to shake up the judiciary and boost police powers.
Without the support of the European Union’s post-pandemic recovery fund — the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Italy might have slipped into recession, economists say.
The NRRP, worth €194 billion in grants and loans, has been a lifeline for Meloni’s government.
“The only growth we have is mainly thanks to the NRRP,” said Carlo Calenda, a former industry minister and head of the centrist Action party.
“The main problem is how we have spent the NRRP funds. Whereas Spain used their money to incentivise businesses and attract investments, we distributed money indiscriminately to municipalities, much of it on totally useless projects.”
The government denies squandering the EU cash, saying lots of the money had gone into strategic projects, like upgrading transport links, whose benefit would be felt in the years ahead.
Since taking office in 2022, Meloni has established herself as a key player in European and transatlantic affairs, joining forces with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to slow migration flows from North Africa and forging close ties with United States President Donald Trump and his predecessor Joe Biden.
Pollster Lorenzo Pregliasco said her sure-footed foreign endeavours and aversion to political drama have helped her maintain a steady opinion poll.
Just as importantly, the centre-left opposition is divided after its 2022 defeat, with no leader so far capable of challenging Meloni, whose feisty, no-nonsense language resonates with an electorate wary of political elites.
“She also knows that if you try to reform something, you inevitably make somebody unhappy. She’s not probably doing much, especially on the domestic level, for that very reason.”
Resistance to change is perhaps understandable in a country that has one of the oldest demographics in the world and where a quarter of the population is aged 65 and over.
“My baseline scenario is that Meloni will likely complete this legislature and will likely be the favorite to win the next election,” said Pregliasco.
“But, this is Italy and it doesn’t take much for the winds to change.”
* The writer is from Reuters
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