PETALING JAYA: Malaysia needs to raise the average price of cigarettes by more than 80% to RM31.74 per pack to help meet its target of cutting smoking prevalence to 15%, according to an interactive data tool.
The Cost Recovery and Revenue Estimator (CoRRE) calculates that higher prices of cigarettes, which currently cost an average of RM17.40 per pack in Malaysia, would contribute to a reduction in smoking prevalence.
Developed by Johns Hopkins University, global health organisation Vital Strategies and the American Cancer Society, CoRRE estimates that 18.2% of Malaysia’s population aged 15 and above are smokers.
Malaysia aims to reduce smoking prevalence to 15% this year, in line with the Control of Smoking Products for Public Health Act.
CoRRE said meeting the target would require a 159% increase in tobacco taxes, from RM8.98 to RM23.32 per pack.
Such a tax hike could generate an additional RM2.6bil annually in tax revenue for the government, it said in a report published last month.
CoRRE was created as part of the latest edition of the Tobacco Atlas, which also provides in-depth analysis on tobacco use prevalence, taxes and other tobacco control policies as well as programmes around the world.
According to the Tobacco Atlas website, taxes are the most effective tobacco control intervention but the least implemented.
“A sufficiently large tax increase will raise tobacco product prices, making them less affordable, thereby discouraging initiation, encouraging quitting, and driving down consumption,” said the Tobacco Atlas.
The World Health Organisation’s (WHO) Global Tobacco Epidemic 2025 report last month said while Malaysia made some progress, prices of cigarettes have not become less affordable since 2014, hampering efforts to reduce consumption.
The WHO report said affordability is measured by the proportion of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) required to purchase 2,000 sticks of the most sold cigarette brand.
In this regard, only the Philippines among Asean countries has made notable progress while Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Myanmar have seen no significant change.
A study by the School of Business and Economics at Universiti Putra Malaysia found that cigarettes remain relatively affordable, with Malaysians spending just 3.2% of their GDP per capita to buy 100 packs.
“The findings emphasise the urgent need for the government to implement consistent and substantial excise tax increases to make cigarettes less affordable,” the study said.
It also recommended that excise tax rates be regularly adjusted to outpace income growth and inflation to ensure that cigarettes gradually become less affordable over time.
Currently, tobacco taxes in Malaysia make up 75.3% of the retail price of the most popular cigarette brand, the third highest in Asean after Indonesia (78.9%) and Thailand (78.6%).
These three countries are also among 40 worldwide that have reached the WHO-recommended threshold of a 75% tax share of the retail price, identified as effective in curbing smoking rates.
“Governments can significantly reduce tobacco consumption, save millions of lives, and cut healthcare costs in both the short and long term,” the WHO said.
A study last year cited by the WHO estimated that raising excise taxes globally to trigger a 50% price hike could prompt 102 million people to quit smoking, including 84 million in low- and middle-income countries.
On tobacco control policy, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand are just two steps away from achieving best practices across all the measures in the WHO framework for tobacco control.
For Malaysia, the remaining gaps lie in offering help to quit tobacco use and enforcing bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship.
Malaysia has already met best practices in monitoring tobacco use, protecting people from tobacco smoke, and warning about the dangers of tobacco through health warnings and mass media campaigns.
According to Our World in Data, smoking was the third leading risk factor for deaths in Malaysia in 2021, after high blood pressure and high blood sugar. Smoking also contributed to 19,300 deaths in 2021.
