NEW DELHI: Gold’s stellar rally to successive record highs shows every sign of continuing for the rest of the year, but a healthy correction is on the cards before breaching the US$4,000 per ounce milestone in 2026, traders and industry experts said.
Strong tailwinds such as expectations for monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, lingering geopolitical tensions, worries over the Federal Reserve’s independence, and strong central bank purchases have prompted investors to flock to the precious metal.
“The long-term gold bull run looks intact, as demand, particularly from central banks and ETFs, continues to rise at a faster pace,” Renisha Chainani, head of research at Mumbai-based refiner Augmont, said on the sidelines of the India Gold Conference in New Delhi.
“But gold is currently in overbought territory and may see a five to six per cent correction in the short term, before consolidating and rising again to reach new highs above US$4,200 in 2026,” she said.
Spot gold was trading around US$3,680 per ounce on Tuesday after hitting a record US$3,689.27 earlier in the session, having gained about 40 per cent so far this year, following a 27 per cent jump in 2024.
Nearly all industry participants at the conference were expecting gold’s bull run to continue into 2026 on a reduction in US interest rates, strong investment demand and geopolitical risks.
“Analysts have been hedging prices to reach US$4,000 in 2026. But it’s really difficult to say, because every projection that we’ve looked at, the price has gone to that level much faster than we expected,” said Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery.
The US central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates at the end of its monetary policy meeting on Sept 17. Trump has been pushing the Fed to cut rates and has repeatedly criticised Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for acting too slowly.
Gold, traditionally known as a favoured hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, also thrives in a low-interest-rate environment.
“Gold prices are in uncharted territory, having not spent too much time in the US$3,400s and US$3,500s,” said Philip Newman, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus, adding the firm expects prices to climb to around US$3,800 at the end of the year.
“We could see a potential correction ahead after this price rally, but we also see that as a buying opportunity for investors who are waiting on the sidelines to get into the market. We could see gold prices scale above US$4,000 in 2026.”
Silver breakout
Silver, both an investment asset and an industrial metal used in electronics and solar panels, has performed well on the back of gold’s strength and firm physical demand amid deficit worries.
The metal was trading at around US$42.50 per ounce on Tuesday, its highest level in 14 years.
“Besides the usual industrial use, growing investor interest has been giving silver prices a solid push,” said Chirag Thakkar, chief executive of Amrapali Group Gujarat, a leading silver importer.
© New Straits Times Press (M) Bhd
