Malaysia Oversight

BN poised for easy win in Ayer Kuning by-election, but unity vote test looms – Ilham Centre

By NST in April 25, 2025 – Reading time 2 minute
BN poised for easy win in Ayer Kuning by-election, but unity vote test looms - Ilham Centre


KUALA LUMPUR: Barisan Nasional () is expected to comfortably retain the Ayer Kuning state seat in tomorrow’s by-election.

Research and intelligence firm Ilham Centre, is not likely to face major obstacles in defending the seat, based on observations made during the two-week campaign period.

However, the key question lies in the coalition’s cooperation with Pakatan Harapan (PH) within the unity government to boost support and reach the target of 18,000 votes, as set by Perak menteri besar and state chairman Datuk Seri Saarani Mohamad.

“This target places direct pressure on both BN and PH campaign machinery to demonstrate the effectiveness of their cooperation through the polling day results, even though the majority of respondents believe the target will be difficult to achieve,” it said in a statement.

It said the dynamics of vote transfers, particularly from PH voters, would be a crucial factor in determining the election outcome.

Generally, PH supporters are not expected to face major issues in transferring their support to the BN candidate, due to the mutual understanding within the unity government.

Nevertheless, Chinese voters reportedly remain sceptical of BN, prompting DAP and MCA to campaign separately in a bid to win over this community’s support.

Polling will take place on Saturday, with 31,897 registered voters eligible to cast their ballots.

The by-election was triggered by the death of ‘s Ishsam Shahruddin, who passed away from a heart attack on Feb 22.

The contest will feature a three-cornered fight between BN’s Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir, Perikatan Nasional’s Abdul Muhaimin Malek, and PSM’s K.S. Bawani.

Meanwhile, Ilham Centre believes PN’s main strategy is to retain its support base among Malay voters, especially the youth, similar to the 2022 general election, when the coalition won in four Malay-majority district polling centres in Ayer Kuning.

“Therefore, this by-election serves as a key battleground to determine whether PN can maintain its performance or lose its grip to BN once again,” it said.

During the 15th general election, Ishsam won the seat with a 2,213-vote majority in a five-cornered contest against PH, PN, PSM and Gerakan Tanah Air.

© New Straits Times Press (M) Bhd



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