KUALA LUMPUR: Artificial Intelligence (AI) will remain as a key theme in investment moving into 2026, according to MSCI chief research and development officer Ashley Lester.
Lester added that AI stocks showed “phenomenal performance” this year.
Although American firms dominated the global race for AI, the US stock market lagged almost all other major markets.
“Through the end of November, the MSCI USA Index was up nearly 18 per cent. But (in US dollar terms) emerging markets (EM) were up 30 per cent, Europe 31 per cent and Japan 24 per cent.
“This was the largest annual reversal in US markets against the rest of the world since the end of the tech bubble in 2000-2002,;’ he said in MSCI’s report on key themes of investments in 2026.
Lester said America’s underperformance was concentrated in the first half of 2025. Its resurgence was dominated by its AI firms.
“Even as investors began to hedge their macro bets, one high conviction story has remained firm: the AI build-out. We expect AI to remain the centre of gravity in 2026, while the scope of investment and the companies that benefit continue to evolve.
“The winners in 2024 were chips and data centres. In 2025, power and grid operators joined center stage. As we’ll see, renewable energy themes had a banner year, with several firms benefiting directly from data-center demand,” he added.
Based on MSCI’s study, AI firms today spend nearly four times more on research and development than all other firms.
Capex intensity runs at twice the rate, as well as reinvestment rates and employee productivity.
“The investment, productivity and research edge between AI firms and the rest of the world is wide. Data centre capex dominates the headlines, but these structural traits may prove their defining feature.
“Our fundamental data shows that earnings growth in 2026 is projected at over 20 per cent for the stocks in our AI value chain basket, far outpacing all other equities.”
Lester added that countries with low and stable energy prices and predictable regulatory climates are at an advantage as AI continues its roll-out.
An underappreciated risk to AI dominance by the US may be China‘s lead in clean tech and electrification.
He said that China has built commanding positions in solar, grid equipment and energy-efficiency systems.
“It is worth asking to what extent the US is harming its future prospects in the AI revolution as it locks itself increasingly into an energy ecosystem that excludes low-cost solutions from China on the one hand and systematically discourages investments in low-cost renewable electrification on the other,” Lester said.
© New Straits Times Press (M) Bhd
