Sabah Umno is at its weakest point in its history and faces a critical juncture in the upcoming 17th state election, says a political analyst.
Bilcher Bala of Universiti Malaysia Sabah pointed to the statement by the state chapter’s information chief, Suhaimi Nasir, that the state polls would determine whether Sabah Umno “lives or dies”.
Bilcher said that since losing dominance after the 2018 general election and exiting the state government two years ago, Sabah Umno has lost more than 2,000 grassroot leaders, leaving it at its weakest position to date.
“This state election isn’t a normal political contest. It’s set to test the people’s belief in Umno’s ability to regain its past prominence.
“Sabah used to be an Umno stronghold, and losing this state election would mean losing further political ground, which will be tough to recover ahead of the 16th general election (GE16),” he told FMT.
On Friday, Suhaimi said the state election would be a “life or death” battle for Sabah Umno as it would determine how the contests for parliamentary seats in GE16 play out.
While the party currently holds seven of the 30 parliamentary seats in Sabah, the Libaran MP said forming the state government would enable Umno to win at least five more parliamentary seats in GE16.
However, Bilcher said Suhaimi’s “life or death” remark could also be interpreted as aiming to stir the emotions of Sabah Umno’s grassroots to unite the machinery and mobilise support.
“The reality is much more complex. The results of the polls will depend on the candidates, local issues, and the dynamic cooperation of political parties,” he said.
On the other hand, Universiti Teknologi Mara’s Tony Paridi Bagang believes that Umno would not face its end in Sabah so easily, given its long history in the state.
He said the upcoming state election was more of a test of whether the party can return to dominance or not.
“While Sabah Barisan Nasional has reasons to be confident, it cannot be so sure because Sabah politics is so fluid,” he said.
Tony said that even if Sabah Umno fails to form the next state government, it could still serve as a constructive opposition party to regain the people’s confidence.
“As a national party that has been in the seat of government for nearly 61 years, Umno is experienced enough to record a comeback if it loses this state election,” he said.
