KINABATANGAN: Barisan Nasional (BN) is seen as holding an advantage in the Kinabatangan parliamentary and Lamag state by-elections, with analysts citing sympathy politics following the death of long-serving MP Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin and voters’ preference for continuity over protest.
Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) associate professor Dr Syahruddin Awang Ahmad said BN‘s candidate for the Kinabatangan parliamentary seat, Naim Kurniawan Moktar, is likely to benefit from Bung Moktar’s long political legacy.
“For Naim, there is a strong sentiment influenced by sympathy politics, particularly following the death of his father, Bung Moktar, on Dec 5 last year,” he said.
Naim is contesting the seat against Parti Warisan’s Datuk Saddi Abdul Rahman and independent candidate Goldam Hamid.
In the Lamag state by-election, BN‘s Mohd Ismail Ayob, also known as MIHA, is locked in a straight fight with Warisan’s Mazliwati Abdul Malek Chua.
Syahruddin noted that Mohd Ismail, who previously contested as an independent, narrowly lost to Bung Moktar in the 2025 election by a margin of 153 votes.
Syahruddin said Warisan’s candidates were likely to campaign on calls for greater state autonomy, but added that some voters remained sceptical about development prospects without alignment with the federal government.
Meanwhile, UMS analyst Associate Professor Dr Lee Kuok Tiung said voters were likely to view the by-elections as a referendum on service delivery and campaign promises rather than a broader political contest.
While acknowledging dissatisfaction on the ground, particularly over damaged roads, electricity supply and water reliability, Lee said such issues were unlikely to translate into protest votes.
“Generally, voters tend to prefer continuity unless they are triggered by a major scandal or a strong local grievance,” he said, adding that voters often consider which parties form the federal and state governments when deciding how to cast their ballots.
Lee also forecast lower voter turnout, particularly among younger voters, unless political parties deploy strong election machinery to mobilise voters and facilitate their return home to vote.
© New Straits Times Press (M) Bhd
