A multi-cornered fight for the Tanjong Papat seat could work in Sabah DAP’s favour, even with the party’s former state chairman Frankie Poon contesting, says an analyst.
James Chin of the University of Tasmania said it is too early to predict the outcome, but noted that strong local support for DAP and the potential for vote-splitting among multiple contenders could tilt the race in the party’s favour.
Chin said DAP has a strong brand in Sandakan, where the Tanjong Papat seat is located.
Universiti Malaysia Sabah’s Lee Kuok Tiung agreed, saying DAP commands strong support among Chinese voters across Sabah. He said the party’s larger campaign apparatus gives it an edge over rivals, especially in contests for urban seats.
“After nomination day, DAP comrades from all over the peninsula and Sarawak will likely come to Sandakan to help, giving them a boost for their election machinery.
“Poon and (former Sabah DAP secretary) Liau Fui Fui may have an established brand, but setting up their election machinery at the last minute may be challenging,” Lee told FMT.
Poon and Liau were recently named by Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM) as its candidates in Tanjong Papat and Elopura, another constituency in Sandakan, less than a week before nomination day on Nov 15.
The pair left DAP last month, claiming the state leadership was sidelining party veterans.
Poon is hoping to secure a third term as Tanjong Papat assemblyman. He won the seat for DAP in 2020 with a 3,743-vote majority in a seven-cornered contest.
He will come up against DAP youth vice-chief Tang Szu Ching, a relatively well-known figure among constituents, although saddled with the perception of being a parachute candidate from Kota Kinabalu.
“She (Tang) can put up a good fight provided she can get rid of this label. Otherwise, she risks losing the Chinese vote,” he said.
Lee said Chinese voters often cast their ballots for the party they support rather than individual candidates. This has over the years allowed DAP to introduce new faces to refresh the party’s lineup, he added.
Poon and Tang are expected to face a crowded field, with Warisan, Perikatan Nasional (PN), the Sabah Progressive Party and Parti Impian Sabah (PIS) having also announced their candidates for the seat.
Tighter race in Elopura
Lee expects a tighter race in Elopura, where Liau is slated to face two formidable opponents — DAP’s Sandakan MP Vivian Wong and Warisan’s Calvin Chong — as well as candidates from PN and PIS.
At the 2022 general election, Liau ran for the Batu Sapi parliamentary seat but lost to Gabungan Rakyat Sabah’s Khairul Firdaus Akbar Khan by 4,821 votes.
The incumbent, Chong, on the other hand, won the Elopura seat in 2018 and retained it in 2020 with a comfortable 7,683-vote majority in a six-way contest, before later defecting to Warisan.
Lee said the candidates all bring different attributes to the table — Liau has mileage in her politics, and Chong the advantage of incumbency, while Vivian has the DAP Youth’s machinery at her disposal.
“Any mistake could give victory to Warisan’s Chong,” he said.
Chin, however, believes Vivian is well positioned to win the seat, citing her personal popularity and the local community’s high regard for her late father, the widely respected former Sandakan MP Stephen Wong.
Stephen’s death in 2019 triggered a by-election which Vivian won decisively for DAP, pulling in a 11,521-vote majority.
Chin nonetheless said Vivian must be able to explain to voters why she was vying to represent the state constituency despite already holding a federal seat.
“The Chinese do not like someone hogging so many positions,” he added.
