KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia is expected to experience a brief La Nina phenomenon at the start of next year, which could affect rainfall patterns, although conditions are likely to return to neutral soon after.
The National Climate Centre of the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) said that a long-term weather outlook from September 2025 to February 2026 indicates most international climate models predict the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, with a 56 per cent probability of remaining so until October.
“Based on the consensus of several climate forecast models, global phenomena influencing the country’s weather, such as ENSO, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), have also been taken into account.
“Most international climate models indicate ENSO is currently neutral, with the latest Nino Oceanic Index (ONI) in the Nino 3.4 monitoring region for May, June, and July 2025 at -0.1°C,” it said in a statement.
MetMalaysia added that after this period, a short La Nina event is possible at the start of next year before weather patterns stabilise.
“This phenomenon is expected to influence rainfall distribution in Southeast Asia, including Malaysia.
“At present, the country is still in the final phase of the Southwest Monsoon.
“The southwest winds result in low humidity, reducing cloud formation and rainfall across most states,” it said.
The agency said more dry days than wet days are expected, alongside a risk of localised and cross-border haze if open burning is not controlled.
“Despite the dry weather, the risk of strong winds and thunderstorms remains, especially in western Peninsular Malaysia, northern Sarawak, and western Sabah,” it added.
MetMalaysia explained that thunderstorms typically occur early in the morning due to squall lines—storm lines formed by converging winds that can persist for several hours.
On the current weather, analysis of recent forecast models predicts strong westerly winds across the country from Sept 22 to 25.
“This may trigger the formation of squall lines, bringing heavy rain and strong winds, particularly in northern Sarawak, western Sabah, and Labuan during this period,” it said.
MetMalaysia advised the public to remain vigilant and follow all weather warnings to prepare for any eventualities.
© New Straits Times Press (M) Bhd
