AI Uncovers Trillion-Barrel Potential In Existing Oil Fields, Says Wood Mackenzie

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 19 (Bernama) — Existing oilfields could supply up to one trillion barrels of crude through 2050 without major new discoveries, according to analysis by energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Wood Mackenzie Senior Vice President of Energy Research, Andrew Latham said global liquids demand under the firm’s base-case Energy Transition Outlook scenario is estimated at just under one trillion barrels.

“Without upgrades to current development plans, today’s producing fields are set to fall short by almost 300 billion barrels. This deficit would rise by another 50 billion barrels under our delayed transition scenario,” he said in a statement.

The firm’s new Synoptic artificial intelligence (AI)-powered Analogues feature, which assesses oilfield performance using machine learning, shows existing fields have significant recovery potential. Early analysis suggests that applying established best practices could yield an additional 470 billion to over one trillion barrels.

National oil companies (NOCs) control nearly 70 per cent of the upside, operating fields with more than 320 billion barrels of potential under top-quartile recovery and 700 billion barrels on a best-in-class basis. Countries with the largest recovery potential include Iran, Venezuela, Iraq and Russia.

By comparison, major international oil companies hold just six per cent of global upside potential, reflecting already strong recovery performance in their fields.

“The future of oil supply will be increasingly onshore and NOC-operated,” Latham noted.

The analysis also highlights a mismatch between resources and expertise, with NOCs achieving recovery factors slightly below the industry average of 29 per cent, despite operating fields with potential for 39 per cent. This gap presents opportunities for partnerships with international oil companies and service providers.

Upside potential is concentrated in onshore and shallow offshore fields, which account for 94 per cent of best-in-class opportunities. Deepwater fields, generally operated by financially strong firms, offer less than six per cent of remaining upside.

Wood Mackenzie stressed that exploration will remain important but cannot close the supply gap. Since the 1980s, most new reserves have come from revisions to existing fields rather than fresh discoveries.

The consultancy also noted that nearly two trillion barrels remain in undeveloped greenfield resources, though only 10 per cent are considered commercially viable. Most are likely to remain stranded due to economic and technical challenges.

“Improved recovery factors will be essential to meeting future demand, as new discoveries alone will not offset the natural decline of supply,” said Latham, concluding that AI-driven analysis marks a significant step forward in understanding oilfield potential compared with traditional analogue methods.

— BERNAMA 

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